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Has Elkhart's battered economy hit bottom or maybe even turned the corner? At least one economist and a city business leader think it has. But the mayor isn't so sure.
"There are some really good signs there, and chances are a bottom has been hit," Morton Marcus, a retired Indiana University economist and consultant with the Elkhart County Economic Development Council, told msnbc.com. "One is that we're seeing firms that have been in the RV and manufactured housing industries for a long time saying, 'Hey ,maybe we ought to do something else, maybe we ought to diversify.' That is of critical importance when you have structural change in the economy."
Also cautiously optimistic – though in the nearer term -- is Phil Penn, president of the Greater Elkhart Chamber of Commerce.
"There just seems to be a little bit more of an upbeat mood" among local business owners, he said. "Certainly things are not swinging yet, but maybe we're seeing the start of a turnaround on this thing."
In an e-mail newsletter sent earlier this week, Penn noted that several local manufacturers have told him that "they are seeing some up-tick in activity."
He also cited the recent announcement by the Electric Motors Corp. and RV manufacturer Gulfstream of plans to build electric car components in nearby Wakarusa ( click here to read an Elkhart Truth report on the venture) and the upcoming groundbreaking of a new local campus for the Ivy Tech community college as encouraging economic signs.
"Just hang in there," Penn said in closing. "There ARE better times ahead. And it may happen quicker than we think."
Elkhart Truth business reporter Marilyn Odendahl also spotted some "green shoots" in a report published last weekend, noting that several local manufacturers – including some surviving RV makers – have hired back some laid-off workers in recent weeks, likely contributing to a dip in the county's unemployment rate in April to 17.8 percent.
Meantime, the first obvious project funded by federal stimulus dollars in Elkhart County has recently gotten under way, putting 13 unemployed young people to work improving trails in a state park. You can read about that on Friday in a report by msnbc.com's Kari Huus.
But Elkhart Mayor Dick Moore said Thursday that while he's optimistic that the economic downturn has slowed, he's not ready to say that his city and surrounding communities have hit bottom.
"I understand what everybody is seeing, and I appreciate what they're saying and hope they're right, but I'm not totally convinced that we have," he said.
Moore said he too has heard that some manufacturers are ramping up their operations and has been ecouraged by reports from local retailers that sales are up slightly.
"But we need to remember that with summer, the construction industry has gone back to work, and maybe people who are working are loosening up on their spending a little."
Moore is not alone in his concern that the flattening could prove temporary.
Teresa Voors, commissioner of the Indiana Department of Workforce Development, noted in a press release that the April jobless rate figures did not account for the recent layoffs in the auto industry and major steel operations, which she said would be reflected "in the next few months."
And Marcus, the economist, said he expects it will be at least three to six months before the county sees significant improvement in its unemployment rate, and that even then the area will not be a leader in emerging from recession as it has in the past.
"I don't believe it's going to be true this time," he said, predicting that RV manufacturing will not return to previous levels and that it will take time for other industries to establish themselves in the area.
He also said that Elkhart County needs to address other long-term issues, such as improving its schools and building its retail base, if it is to prosper over the long term.
"We often look at manufacturing as the base of an economy, but the welfare of a community often will depend on the quality of its schools and its general attractiveness as a place to live," Marcus said. "That's something that Elkhart County is going to have to come to terms with."
Are you seeing hopeful economic signs in your community? Are you growing more confident that there is light at the end of the recessionary tunnel? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below.
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